Bitcoin Price Prediction ⛔ This Forgotten Signal Is Back Again
📅 21 June 2026 • 32 min read • BTC technical analysis
📑 Table of Contents
- The Signal That Keeps Coming Back
- Bitcoin Price Prediction Today – Market Structure
- The Forgotten Indicator – Puell Multiple Returns
- Bullish Scenario – Conditions for a Breakout
- Bearish Scenario – Rejection and Downside Risk
- Ethereum Analysis – Correlation and Divergence
- Bitcoin Dominance – The Rotation Signal
- Gold and Macro – The Risk Barometer
- Whale Accumulation and On‑Chain Themes
- What Traders Are Watching Right Now
- People Also Ask – Direct Answers
- Frequently Asked Questions (Evergreen)
- Conclusion – Patience, Levels, and Uncertainty
🔍 The Signal That Keeps Coming Back
Some indicators fade into obscurity. They are forgotten, replaced by shiny new metrics. But the best signals have a habit of returning – not because they are trendy, but because they measure something fundamental about the market. The Puell Multiple is one such signal. It measures the daily issuance value of Bitcoin relative to the 365‑day moving average of issuance. When it drops to certain levels, it has historically marked the end of bear markets and the beginning of bull runs.
This forgotten signal is back again. The Puell Multiple has fallen to levels that, in the past, have preceded significant rallies. It is not a timing tool, but a structural indicator. It tells us that miners are under pressure – and historically, miner capitulation has been a reliable signal of exhaustion. The signal is flashing. Observers should not ignore it.
📈 Bitcoin Price Prediction Today – Market Structure
The daily Bitcoin chart remains inside a well‑defined range. A strong support zone below has held, while a key resistance area overhead continues to cap advances. Momentum oscillators are neutral. Volume has been average. The market is compressed.
But the Puell Multiple tells a different story. It has dropped into the "capitulation zone" – a level that has historically marked the transition from bearish to bullish. The signal does not predict the exact bottom, but it identifies the zone where bottoms have formed. The market structure, combined with the Puell Multiple, suggests that the probability of an upside resolution is increasing.
🛡️ STRONG SUPPORT ZONE
⚡ KEY RESISTANCE AREA
📊 RSI / MOMENTUM
The current market structure is a coiled spring. The Puell Multiple adds weight to the bullish case. The forgotten signal is back, and it is pointing toward a directional move. The only missing ingredient is a breakout confirmation.
🧩 The Forgotten Indicator – Puell Multiple Returns
The unique angle today is the Puell Multiple. This on‑chain indicator measures the ratio of daily Bitcoin issuance value (in USD) to the 365‑day moving average of issuance value. When the Puell Multiple drops below a certain threshold, it indicates that miners are earning significantly less than their historical average – a sign of capitulation.
Historically, Puell Multiple capitulation zones have preceded major rallies. The signal does not mark the absolute bottom, but it has consistently identified the zone where bottoms form. Miners are among the most resilient participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem. When they capitulate, it often signals that selling pressure is exhausted.
The Puell Multiple has just entered this capitulation zone again. This is the first time it has flashed this signal in a long period. The signal is not a guarantee of immediate upward movement, but it is a powerful confirmation that the structural foundation for a rally is being built.
What makes the Puell Multiple particularly compelling is its lack of correlation with price. It does not follow price; it follows miner behavior. When miners capitulate, it is a sign that the weakest hands have sold. The remaining holders are more resilient. This dynamic creates a favorable environment for accumulation and eventual price appreciation.
The forgotten signal is back. Observers who understand its history recognize its significance. The Puell Multiple is not a timing tool, but it is a powerful validation of the bullish thesis.
🐂 BULLISH SCENARIO
- Daily close above the key resistance area with volume expansion
- First target: the next major resistance zone above
- Second target: the liquidity pool beyond that
- Confirmation: Puell Multiple continues to rise from capitulation zone
- Invalidation: price closes back inside the range
🐻 BEARISH SCENARIO
- Daily close below the strong support zone
- Next support: the deeper demand area
- Risk: downside cascade as stops are triggered
- Signals: Puell Multiple fails to recover
- Invalidation: recovery back above support within 3 days
🔷 Ethereum Analysis – Correlation and Divergence
Ethereum's Puell Multiple equivalent (the issuance value ratio) is less pronounced. The ETH/BTC pair remains under pressure, reflecting Bitcoin's relative strength. If Bitcoin breaks out, Ethereum will likely follow, but the Puell Multiple signal is primarily a Bitcoin phenomenon.
Traders should watch the ETH/BTC pair for a reversal; a break above a key moving average would signal that altcoins are ready to participate. For now, the forgotten signal is a Bitcoin‑centric indicator.
📊 Bitcoin Dominance – The Rotation Signal
Bitcoin dominance has been grinding higher, and the Puell Multiple signal adds weight to the continuation of this trend. A breakout in dominance above resistance would confirm that capital is flowing out of altcoins and into Bitcoin. The forgotten signal supports this scenario.
🥇 Gold and Macro – The Risk Barometer
Gold has been range‑bound after a strong rally. The US dollar index has stabilized. Macro uncertainty is moderate. The Puell Multiple is a crypto‑specific signal and does not depend on macro news. It is a reflection of miner behavior, not of external events.
🐋 Whale Accumulation and On‑Chain Themes
- Exchange netflows have turned negative – coins moving to cold storage.
- Supply on exchanges is near multi‑year lows, reducing liquid supply.
- Long‑term holder supply continues to rise – conviction remains.
- Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are elevated, providing dry powder.
- Miner position indicators show capitulation – a classic bottom signal.
These themes support the Puell Multiple signal. Miners are capitulating, and accumulation is happening. The forgotten signal is backed by on‑chain data.
👀 What Traders Are Watching Right Now
- Volume behavior: Any breakout must come with expanding volume.
- Market reactions to key levels: How price behaves at support and resistance.
- Breakout confirmation: A daily close above resistance or below support.
- Momentum shifts: RSI breaking its own range would add confidence.
- Bitcoin dominance: A move outside its range will signal capital rotation.
- The Puell Multiple: Whether it continues to recover from capitulation.
💡 People Also Ask – Direct Answers
Bitcoin consolidates when buyers and sellers reach equilibrium. Long consolidations often precede large moves because accumulated energy needs to be released. The longer the range, the more powerful the eventual breakout or breakdown.
Breakouts are triggered by a shift in supply/demand – often a catalyst like ETF flows, macroeconomic news, or a liquidity sweep. Technically, a daily close outside the range with volume confirms the breakout.
A liquidity sweep is when price moves beyond a key level to trigger stop losses and then reverses. It is a market maker technique to harvest liquidity before moving in the opposite direction.
Liquidity sweeps harvest stop losses from weak hands. Once those orders are executed, the artificial pressure disappears, and the market often reverses back to the mean.
Yes, false breakouts and sudden reversals are common in crypto. That is why waiting for a daily close confirmation is essential. Reversals often occur after liquidity sweeps.
A real breakout is confirmed by a daily close outside the range, expanding volume, and follow‑through price action over the next 1‑2 days without immediately reversing.
Volume is critical. Low‑volume breakouts often fail (false breakouts). Volume confirms conviction – high volume on the breakout candle increases the probability of a sustained move.
Whales have the capital to move markets. Their accumulation or distribution trends can foreshadow directional moves. On‑chain data tracks whale behavior through exchange netflows and supply dynamics.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (Evergreen)
The Puell Multiple measures daily Bitcoin issuance value relative to its 365‑day average. When it drops into the capitulation zone, it historically marks the end of bear markets and the beginning of bull runs. It is a forgotten but powerful on‑chain signal.
It is not a timing tool, but it has a strong track record of identifying structural bottoms. It works best when combined with other indicators like price action and volume. The current signal is one of the clearest in recent years.
The strong support zone below and the key resistance area overhead. A daily close outside this range will signal the next move. The Puell Multiple suggests the move will be upward.
Bitcoin dominance is also showing signs of a breakout. A move higher in dominance would confirm Bitcoin's relative strength. The Puell Multiple supports the bullish Bitcoin scenario.
Subscribe to Thomas Boleto on YouTube and join the Patreon community for daily insights, live streams, and educational trade ideas. You can also follow the Bitcoin price prediction label for all posts.
Miner capitulation occurs when miners are forced to sell their Bitcoin due to declining profitability. It often marks the exhaustion of selling pressure and is a classic bottom signal. The Puell Multiple measures this dynamic.
📊 Deepen your understanding → thomasboleto.com for advanced charts and educational resources.
🚀 Get Daily Bitcoin Analysis & VIP Trade Ideas
Join our private community for daily crypto market insights, educational trade ideas, technical analysis, and exclusive updates.
Join Patreon →📌 Conclusion – Patience, Levels, and Uncertainty
A forgotten signal has returned. The Puell Multiple has entered the capitulation zone – a level that has historically marked the end of bear markets and the beginning of bull runs. The signal does not guarantee immediate upward movement, but it adds significant weight to the bullish thesis. The market remains compressed, and a breakout is likely. Observers should watch the key levels, wait for a daily close, and avoid guessing. The forgotten signal is a powerful clue, but confirmation is still required. Patience will be rewarded.
For all Bitcoin-related analysis, visit the Bitcoin price prediction label or explore crypto market analysis.
Risk Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified advisor before investing. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
0 Comments